Richard Russell has grown very vocally bearish in recent months. Earlier this year, Russell warned that the stock market was once again becoming grossly overvalued despite its relentless new highs. He has maintained that the bear market never ended and that the world is far too indebted to exit the bear market. He also believes the bear will not end until all fiat currencies have failed. Although I disagree with him on many aspects of the micro I agree with his larger macro outlook. This bear market is not over. The secular bear market lives on. Mr. Russell thinks we might be on the verge of a terrible collapse:
“We’re now in the process of building one of the largest tops in stock market history. The result, I think, will be the most disastrous bear market since the ‘30s, and maybe worse.
Question: “What could possibly be behind such a bear market?” you ask. “The stock market is stirring up optimism on a weekly, if not daily basis, by not falling apart.”
Answer: This is the “rest” or “dead zone” I was talking about. Bear markets don’t conclude in a day, a week or a month. Months will go by, often adding to the bulls’ optimism.
I think the key element behind this great bear market will be the complete destruction of all fiat currencies. This has been a long time coming. Fiat currencies are “wealth” created by man. They are created without sacrifice, without labor, without risk, and without sweat. Basically they are an immoral device, created by secretive bankers.
If you watch the figures carefully, you’ll note the subtle deterioration. For instance, the advance-decline ratio, although up slightly for the week, had a relatively weak performance with the Dow up several hundred points over the course of the week. And we broke the trendline in May (see the chart below showing the cumulative advance-decline line for NYSE Common Stock only, which is what we publish in our figures (courtesy of DecisionPoint — www.decisionpoint.com). The vertical lines are Jan 2008, Jan 2009 and Jan 2010 as you move to the right on the chart.
My old friend, Bob Prechter, is talking about Dow 400. I used to think this was an absurd joke. I no longer think it’s a joke. The ultimate result will be a primary bear market shocking in duration and extent.
Gold: As for gold, its stellar performance goes on. This in the face of ominous warnings of various worried experts. On Friday, August gold rose to a new record high. The next step will be into the 1300s — point&figure upside objective is now 1310.
Gold shares are lagging bullion in this last move, not yet showing the break-out seen in the yellow metal.
The world (minus the US) is loading up with the yellow metal with banks running out of vault space. The great 10-year primary bull market is moving into its 11th year. The bull market in gold attests to the systematic decline in the value of the dollar compared with real money – gold.
One of the greatest modern traders, John Paulson, who made billions on the housing collapse, has, I understand, all his personal money in gold-related items. Many of my subscribers have now built gold profits beyond anything they have ever achieved before. I know at this point one could get itchy fingers thinking of the profits achievable by switching gold for fiat currency. I warn subscribers, stay on the yellow brick road. The big profits, the astounding profits, will accrue when gold finally bursts loose of its prejudices and freely expresses itself.
My advice now is to put as much of your money as you’re comfortable with in bullion coins. Remember the simple phrase that’s been around through years of history – “There’s no fever like gold fever.” Fiat money is doomed. Act on it.”
Source: Dow Theory Letters
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.