Stocks erased yesterday’s huge gains when rising treasury yields caused a sell-off in stocks. Volume was light again today, but the fundamental reason for today’s move was far more logical (wise investors should have been selling into the consumer confidence figure yesterday because it is a rear view mirror indicator).
The S&P 500 lost 1.9%, oil gained 1%, long treasuries got hammered almost 2%, gold was basically flat and the dollar ended the day roughly even.
Durable goods and jobless claims are on the docket tomorrow. Continuing claims are expected to surge again while durable goods orders should be flat. I think there is downside risks to both figures as recent manufacturing data has been weaker than expected and jobless claim estimates remain high. The market appears to be overlooking the potential negative impacts of a GM bankruptcy. That could dominate news as the likelihood of a Sunday evening bankruptcy announcement looks more and more inevitable. If you want to own stocks into that news be my guest….I still believe the risks in equities are exorbitant at these levels.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.