Deep thoughts here from one of the all-time greats:
I don’t believe most investors understand the significance of the possibility that the March to October rally was an upward correction in a bear market. The majority of analysts believe that the advance that started from the March lows represented the beginning of a new bull market. I disagree, and I’ve explained in detail why I do not believe March marked the start of a new bull market.
For the sake of argument, let’s just assume that I’m right and that what we’ve seen since March was a bear market rally. If that’s true, we’re in a very dangerous situation. It appears to me that the rally is in the process of topping out. Again, let’s assume that we’ve been in a bear market rally. If the rally is indeed topping out, then the stock market will soon be again in the grip of the bear.
The rally ran from March to October, a period of seven months. In other words, the bear market has been “held back” for a period of over half a year. My thinking is that the bear is “angry” at being held back, and it will probably want to make up for lost time in the period ahead. From everything I see, hear or read, I gather that almost everybody believes the March lows are safe, that they will not be violated, no matter what.
However, if the bear market rally is now in the process of breaking up, my thought is that stocks could decline very rapidly, much faster than most people are prepared for. If late-coming traders suspect that the rally is over, we could see a frenzy to get out of this market. This along with a panic from pros who want to get out with what profits are left.
Source: Dow Theory Letters
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
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