I think this pretty much sums up the way a great deal of investors currently feel about the stock market. Although I can’t say that I entirely agree (I think there are swings worth taking here and there) I am certainly not one to argue with the great Richard Russell:
“Perhaps Lord Keynes’ wisest admonition was when he said, “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
Let’s take the current situation. The dollar is under attack, housing is still sick. unemployment remains a chronic problem, stocks are rising on a sea of liquidity. Iran and North Korea both have nuclear capabilities and are both “wildly unstable.” With this background, a stock market that is rising might easily be termed “irrational.”
I’m not the only analyst who considers a rising market in this area as “irrational.” My strategy, in view of what I just wrote, is to stay solvent. What’s my strategy for remaining solvent? Easy, I feel more comfortable out of the stock market and on the sidelines. I’m not saying that the stock market isn’t going higher. My PTI and my Lowry’s studies say that it is. But this stock market advance is a “pitch” that I’m not going to swing on. The bull market in gold is enough for me. I can sleep with my gold and silver positions. And frankly, I couldn’t sleep with a large position in the stock market. The reason — this market is too “irrational” for me. And I don’t say it’s irrational because of outside news events. I’m not saying that it’s just the unsolved housing mess that bothers me. No, it’s the fact that the dividend yield on the S&P is a micro 1.86%.
Buying a selection of stocks when the dividend yield is flashing “danger” is not my cup of tea. I’ve been around too long to feel that I have to be in the market every time it advances.. There’ll be other opportunities; the market is always there. I’ll enter the stock market when I like the “pitch.” In baseball, it’s three strikes and you’re out. In the stock market, one incorrect swing of the bat, and you can take a bath that will set you back financially for years — if not for life.”
Source: Dow Theory Letters
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.