Chart Of The Day


The odds of recession are declining substantially.  At least that’s the story Intrade is telling us.  Intrade is an online market that trades mostly political events, but a range of other events as well.  According to the latest Intrade market data the odds of recession in 2012 have fallen to 30% from a recent high of nearly 50%.

I’ve long been saying that odds of recession are very low in 2012 for various reasons and my opinion there hasn’t changed much.  I still think the balance sheet recession is likely to end in the coming couple of years and that marginal improvement in the private sector de-leveraging situation combined with high federal deficits will bolster the economy this year.  It’s not enough for a strong year, but muddle through is probably about right….

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