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The Council on Foreign Relations highlights the weakness of the recent economic recovery in their quarterly update (via Warren Mosler):

  • Real GDP is growing, but weakly compared with the postwar average recovery.
  • The recovery from the 1980 recession was even weaker at this stage, but that reflected a double-dip recession in 1981.
  • The economy would have to grow at a 7.6 percent annualized rate in order to catch up with the average postwar recovery by the end of 2012.
  • The consensus forecast for 2012 growth as reported by Bloomberg is 2.1 percent, up just slightly from a forecast of 2.0 percent as of last October.

  • The slow recovery is obvious in the labor market, where job growth remains painfully sluggish compared to the average recovery.
  • The recent uptick at the end of the Current Recovery linev(red) is the result of encouraging payroll data announced on January 6th 2012.
  • Because of the depth of the recent recession, one might expect stronger-than-average improvement in industrial production.
  • Despite the predicted snapback, the increase in industrial production during this recovery is actually slightly slower than in the average postwar case.

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