Excellent read here from Bloomberg Markets. Thiel runs global macro hedge fund Clarium Capital. The article not only details Thiels impressive background, but also details his macro bets. Specifically, Thiel is expecting deflation to drive bonds higher, inflation to send oil soaring and the dollar to strengthen against the euro. As for risk management – it doesn’t sound like Thiel is a big fan as leverage is often 3x -8x and positions are focused solely on a few macro themes.
Thiel, by contrast, is a throwback to the days when managers like Soros and Robertson made—and sometimes lost— vast fortunes by staking everything on their views of the world economy. “We are trying to pursue a systemic view of the world like that which Soros and others said they pursued,” Thiel says.
Thiel has wagered all of his clients’ money on his conviction that aftershocks from the go-go ’90s will jar the U.S. His vision of the future isn’t pretty. The housing bubble will collapse and economic growth will stall, he says. An oil shock will add to the pain.
Few money managers are prepared for the turbulence ahead, Thiel says. Clarium is ready, he says. “The hedge fund’s mission is to make sense of an extraordinary moment in time in the world—a time of retail sanity amid wholesale madness,” Thiel says.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.