A short morning recap here. Although most market participants are out shopping for the holidays there was some fairly important data out this morning. Initial jobless claims came in at 452K which was better than the consensus of 470K. Continuing claims also fell sharply to 5.076MM. The long steady improvement in the jobs market continues.
Perhaps more important is the continued improvement in durable goods orders. Econoday has the details:
Boeing orders slipped in November but the rest of durables orders look good. New orders for durable goods in November rebounded 0.2 percent after a 0.6 percent decline in October. The boost in November came in below the consensus forecast for a 0.5 percent increase. Excluding the transportation component, new durables orders posted a 2.0 percent gain, following a 0.7 percent drop in October. The weakness in transportation was a huge drop in civilian aircraft orders.
The outlook for capital goods spending is improving at the core level-although it may be foreign spending more than domestic investment. However, headline new orders for nondefense capital goods fell 1.9 percent in November after an increase of 0.8 percent the previous month. The weakness was in the volatile aircraft component. Excluding aircraft, new orders for nondefense capital goods rebounded 2.9 percent after a 2.0 percent dip in October. These numbers reflect orders from both foreign and U.S. businesses.
All in all, the data continues to support the long sluggish & fragile recovery thesis. The market, not surprisingly, continues to melt higher as the bears are out shopping for holiday gifts.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.