The following provides a brief critique of a relatively new monetary theory called “Modern Monetary Theory” also known as MMT.
MMT has become an increasingly popular economic theory in some left-wing circles in recent years in part due to its eye opening description of public finances. I am sympathetic to many of the views espoused by MMT and I would argue that they have many useful insights. I’ve written about how MMT is an important theory to understand, but I would also argue that MMT takes a basic Post-Keynesian & Marxian framework and adds a bunch of “modern” understandings that result in inconsistencies. I think they use these inconsistencies to try to form a “new paradigm” for public finances that misconstrues reality. In my opinion, this new paradigm is unnecessary and results in some overreach in the areas describing the monetary system. The following 4 critiques (as well as my own brief comments below) are useful and elaborate on those inconsistencies.
- MMT, The Emperor Still Has No Clothes, Thomas Palley
- The Monetary and Fiscal Nexus of NeoChartalism, by Marc Lavoie
- MMT and the Real World Accounting of 1-1<0, by Brett Feibiger
- A Critique of MMT, by Steve Waldman
Here’s a shorter version of what I believe are the primary inconsistencies and problems in MMT. This is a brief rebuttal, but covers the main points of confusion. I’ve tried to focus on points of operational errors where I feel MMT misunderstands operational realities of the monetary system. This hopefully results in an objective analysis as opposed to a politically biased policy focus.
MMT Claim #1: A sovereign currency issuer need not fund itself via taxes or bond sales.
Reality: Any endogenous issuer of money must “fund” itself.
Two brief notes before we dive into the specific details here:
First, we should be clear about one thing – the US Treasury is legally required to obtain funds before it spends. When you incur a tax liability your tax dollars actually go to the Treasury and credit its General Account which gives it the legal ability to then credit someone else’s bank account. This is an undeniable legal requirement that immediately disproves the MMT position. They sometimes state that this is “self imposed”, but yes, so are homicide laws. That does not mean homicide law aren’t real just because we “self impose” them. If you want to theorize about a world where homicide laws don’t exist then great. But we should be clear that that discussion does not pertain to the world we actually live in. So we should establish up front that the current legal structures are very clear about the orders of operations here – taxes fund spending because the Treasury is legally required to fund its spending. If you want to argue that there is a potential alternative reality where this legal statute doesn’t exist then great, but we should be clear that that is an alternative reality.
Second, we should note that the MMT use of the term “sovereign” is very slippery. It is a practically meaningless term in the sense that sovereignty exists on a spectrum and some governments have little sovereignty due to real constraints. For instance, a resource constrained economy is not sovereign because it has real constraints on its economy. It might be forced to borrow in a foreign currency (as many emerging economies do) because they do not have the flexibility of a large developed sovereign economy like the USA. But we should also note that sovereignty is a dynamic existence. A country can lose its sovereignty due to reasons outside of its control or even due to the actions of its governments. MMT uses this term in an ambiguous manner in much the same way that a borrower might say “I am solvent as long as I have credit”. A country with little sovereignty has little credit and just like credit, sovereignty can be a moving target. MMT has no empirical or consistent understanding of this concept and instead uses it to make sweeping generalizations.
The actual structure of the monetary system is extremely important to understand in the context of this discussion as the US monetary system has been structured and lobbied so that its banks are central and essential to the system. While the government could theoretically issue all of the money in the monetary system the reality is that banks issue most of the money and have inserted themselves as essential components of the monetary system. For instance, the above law is in place so that the US government must be a user of the deposit system which makes the government beholden to the banks in many different ways. This is not a mistake. It is a specific institutional structure that subordinates the power of the state to act at the mercy of the banks at times (for instance, during financial panics). Whether this is an ideal structure or not is a different debate, but this institutional structure is our reality.
Let’s move on to more theoretical ideas though and add some clarity here. This is idea that taxes don’t fund spending is one of the core underlying ideas in MMT, but it is false once one understands endogenous money. In an endogenous money system anyone can issue money denominated in certain state based units of account. The state can legally attribute some credibility to certain forms of money, but it cannot force the private sector to accept these forms of money as having value.
Anyone who issues money in an endogenous system must be able to find willing holders of their liabilities. This is as true for a state as it is for a private citizen. The key difference between a household and a government is that once a private citizen cannot fund its liabilities it is deemed bankrupt. The state, however, will not deem itself bankrupt and is generally not susceptible to such laws (except in rare cases like Greece where it has essentially outsourced its own monetary sovereignty). Instead, when a state cannot find willing holders of its liabilities it will suffer a currency crisis or an inflation crisis. The fact that the state can always “fund” itself by printing more money or having the Central Bank fund its liabilities is a powerful and important understanding, but it does not preclude the state from having to fund its liabilities by finding willing holders.
MMTers sometimes say things like “taxpayers do not fund anything”. But this is like saying that my income does not fund my spending so long as I can find willing holders of my debt. I am essentially issuing money simply by finding a lender who will hold my deposits (a new loan is the equivalent of issuing the bank a new asset to fund some spending). That is, if I could perpetually find new lenders then I would have no need for an income. You could even say that my income doesn’t “fund” my spending because I can spend without having any income. But this is obviously silly because output and income gives one credit. If a sovereign currency issuer could not tax some level of output then they would have no credibility. They would essentially be bankrupt because no one would hold the liabilities of an entity that has no chance of being able to redeem those liabilities since there is no output base upon which those liabilities can be given value. Although a sovereign government has unique powers it is not immune to the reality that it can run out of willing holders of its liabilities.
It should be obvious that an entity with a printing press can print its own currency at will and won’t default or “run out of money”. This is neither a “modern” understanding nor a very useful one. What is important is why people might use that money and the parameters within which that money is viably “financed” and given credibility. In this sense, it is rather meaningless to say that the state doesn’t “fund” its spending because just like any other liability issuer it most certainly needs to find willing holders of its liabilities. The state simply leverages the capital of its private sector in much the same way that a bank endogenously creates loans without “financing” its loan issuance. A government with a highly productive private sector will tend to have a more flexible financial constraint than a government with a less productive private sector.
MMT should not confuse people with this “new paradigm” type of mentality which creates inconsistencies across the concept of endogenous money. Instead, MMT should remain consistent with the endogenous money school and explain that all money issuers need willing holders of their liabilities. In this sense, taxes do fund government spending in that productive income is what gives money credibility. A productive private sector generates the domestic product and income that gives government liabilities credibility in the first place.
Of course, MMT is right that the true constraint for the currency issuer is not solvency, but inflation and that the state tends to have greater solvency flexibility than a household or business. But this concept needs to be expressed within the confines of the fact that the state needs to be able to find willing holders of their liabilities. After all, it is rather meaningless to argue that a country like Zimbabwe did not run into a “solvency” constraint when it ran out of willing holders of their liabilities during their hyperinflation. And if you cannot express the limits of this inflation constraint (something MMT does not do empirically) then you are no better than the people who are incorrectly screaming about the fictitious solvency constraint.
Standard MMT response to claim #1: “It’s not about funding, it’s about understanding that a currency issuer creates the money that is used to pay taxes which then destroys money. Reserves drains require reserves adds first. Therefore, a government cannot fund itself when it is the creator of money.”
CR Response: The modern monetary system is not set-up in such a way that the US government issues money directly. Banks issue most of the money in the monetary system and the reserve system is used to transfer funds within the banking system. Cash and coins are also facilitating forms of money that help someone with a bank account transact. MMT says that you can consolidate the Fed into the Treasury to show that taxation results in the government obtaining its own liabilities (reserves where they settle). Thus, MMT says this is where money is destroyed and created. However, this is not meaningful in any real sense since the govt is not destroying a deposit liability, but instead transferring it from one bank to another when it taxes and spends. You cannot consolidate the Fed into the Treasury and still claim to be explaining reality. The Fed, after all, exists specifically because we have private banking that requires interbank payment settlement via the Fed system. To skirt this reality is to misconstrue the reality of why the Fed and Treasury are separate entities in the first place.
There is nothing wrong with consolidating balance sheets to simplify a point and make it clearer, however, it is essential, in the case of reality, to understand the flow of funds at work here and the purpose of reserves. The way MMT consolidates the balance sheets is designed to misconstrue the flow of funds. But reserves exist only because we have private banks that need interbank clearing of payments via the reserve system. All reserves are imposed on the member banks of this system. So when the government taxes the Treasury uses the reserve system to transfer payments from a commercial bank to the Treasury and then they spend those funds into another commercial bank. MMT claims that the reserves exist because the government spends and then destroys them when it settles the payment with Treasury. But this misconstrues the flow of funds. Reserves only exist because we have private banks which transfer deposits via interbank settlement. Reserves exist because the Central Bank forces the banks to hold them whether the Treasury spends or not. So reserves MUST precede government spending to meet requirements in a private banking system where there is a reserve system. Loans create deposits, but loans also create reserves when needed. To start this process from the point of government spending is to ignore the fact that the only reason the reserves are even in the system is because the Central Bank imposed them on banks to back up a certain amount of deposits that were created through loan issuance. So this process, MUST start with the banks creating loans. To say that spending creates money is to assume that government spending creates reserves which is a fictional presentation of why there are even reserves in the first place.
The important point is that reserves are in fact a clearinghouse asset that exist specifically for the transfer of private non-government liabilities (deposits). Banks create most of the money in the financial system and are required to hold some degree of reserves. These reserves are used for interbank settlements that transfer deposits from one bank to another. When the government taxes it settles this deposit transfer via the reserve system, but this is nothing more than an interbank transfer of the deposits. To depict the reserves as being “destroyed” and then “created” when the government taxes and spends is to misconstrue the reality that those deposits were created in the non-government banking system and simply transferred using reserves. The government does not destroy or create the private bank deposits that it taxed and spent. To consolidate the Fed into the Treasury is to effectively nationalize the banking system in this model and create a misleading fictional depiction of what is actually a specific and clear flow of funds from one private bank to another private bank.
To reiterate this important point it can be useful to see an actual example. Say, for instance, that I take out a $100 loan and the Central Bank imposes a 10% reserve requirement. When the bank creates this loan the Central Bank will create reserves of $10 that allow my bank to meet its reserve requirement. If I then make a $10 payment to someone who uses a different bank in the system then that payment will settle in the interbank market via reserve transfer. My bank will debit my account by $10 leaving me with $90 and the bank will process this payment by sending the $10 in reserves to another bank. This will result in a deposit credit of $10 to the recipient of the payment. When the government taxes the same exact process will occur. If I pay $10 in taxes the US Treasury will obtain a $10 reserve credit which it will then utilize to transfer $10 of private bank deposits to someone else when it spends. This is nothing more than a flow of funds occurring within the interbank system. But it’s very important to note that the Treasury is not really transferring reserves. They are actually transferring the private bank deposits and simply using the reserve system to process an interbank payment just like any other interbank payment settlement. This does not destroy or create the deposit because the deposit came into existence before the government taxed anyone. And the only way this deposit can be destroyed is when it is spent back into the private sector and the loan is repaid. MMT’s depiction of the reserve system as creating and destroying money results in a misleading depiction of the flow of funds that actually occur in the private banking system by creating the illusion that this whole process starts and ends with the government when it really starts outside the government in the private banking system.
We know this is accurate because the history of the Federal Reserve System proves it. For instance, in 1907 there was a massive financial panic that resulted in widespread regulations leading to the Federal Reserve System. This system was created for the purpose of establishing a publicly supported interbank payment system. But the important point is that the reserves on deposit in this interbank system were created as a result of the quantity of loans made. So banks were required to hold a certain amount of deposits on reserve. This proves, definitively, that reserves precede government spending. The act of settling a payment in the reserve system must come after a private bank makes a loan to a private sector entity which results in a tax payment. This tax payment is then settled in the reserve system with the Treasury. But the flow of funds is clear – loans create deposits which result in required reserves. Saying that taxes destroy money and spending creates money misconstrues the flow of funds at work here.
To further prove this point we can consider an example where the banking system is comprised of one private sector bank where the Treasury has an account. In this case there would be no need for reserves since there would be no interbank payments. The Treasury would debit their private bank account when they tax and they would credit it when they spend. They would very clearly be a user of the private deposit system. This would change none of the operational mechanics of the way the Treasury and single bank operate. But the second you add in a second private bank you need an interbank market to settle interbank payments. MMT treats the creation of a reserve system as a de-facto nationalization of the private banking system when the reality is that the Central Bank is nothing more than an agent of both the government AND the private banks.
It is incoherent to say that spending creates money and taxes destroy money because the reserves exist before government spending occurs ONLY because we have private banks that create loans which require reserves within an interbank system. When we start the circuit within the reserve system we create the illusion that the government is the actual creator of money when the reality is that banks issue most of the money and the Federal Reserve exists mainly to facilitate the smooth transfer of interbank payments. MMT should say that deficits create a type of money (T-Bills and T-Bonds) and surpluses destroy this money. That would be a more accurate presentation of the flow of funds.
This is also a flow of funds error within the MMT description of the world. Taxes cannot destroy money because taxes logically occur after some level of spending on private output occurs. That is, taxes are incurred when the private sector spends and we collectively decide to use those taxes to mobilize some amount of resources from private to public domain. So productive resources and private spending on resources precede taxes. It is illogical to argue that the government spends first when taxes occur primarily in bank money which was created before state money ever existed.
Alternative MMT Response to Claim #1: “The Government does not need to tax. It could just print the money it needs”.
CR Response: This is true in theory, but not in reality. The reality is that the US monetary system is designed around its banks. The banks issue the real money and the Central Bank and Treasury accommodate this money supply by issuing reserves for monetary policy and cash for various banking purposes. But the key point is that the US government does not actually issue money in the first instance. New money comes into creation via the private banking system first. As such, the US government is actually a user of the deposit system. It even has bank accounts so it can easily obtain the liabilities of private banks. So, as a matter of reality, the US government has designed its payment system with a private competitive banking system of which the US government is a user. As a result the US government must tax deposits and spend them back into the financial system. Yes, in theory this could all be avoided by having the government spend cash or deposits by being the direct issuer, but we do not live in a theoretical world.
I should be clear here though. The fact that the US government is a user of the deposit system does not mean it will have trouble funding its liabilities. In the case of an emergency funding environment there is little doubt that this theory could become reality and the Central Bank would directly finance the Treasury’s spending. This would likely occur only during a hyperinflation so it’s kind of a moot point, but we shouldn’t confuse the government as a user of the US Dollar when it does have theoretical access to create dollars in perpetuity. Hence why it is important to describe the US government as a “contingent currency issuer”.
Alternative MMT response to claim #1: “If the government did not self impose the spending constraint then MMT would be correct.”
CR Response: The US Treasury is required by law to have credits in its reserve account before it can spend. Although this is “self imposed” it can be said that the entire financial system is self imposed. It is created from thin air with specific rules that dictate the rules of the system. To say that a self imposed rule does not really apply is like saying that speed limits are not important because they are self imposed. While this true there is good reason for the self imposed limit. We want to limit how fast people can drive. Similarly, the US government imposes limits on how the government can spend do it does not go “too fast”. It makes sense to limit the spending of Congress because if there were no checks on its spending it’s likely that this would result in increased corruption and malinvestment. These checks might not appear to make much sense, but they impose limits on the budgeting process that require the Congress to think intelligently about how it spends. Although self imposed they are not without reason.
MMT Claim #2: Unemployment is caused by the deficit being too small.
Reality: Unemployment is caused by a lack of private investment.
MMTers claim that small deficits cause unemployment. Warren Mosler, MMT’s founder says:
“Involuntary unemployment is evidence that the desired H(nfa) of the private sector exceeds theactual H(nfa) allowed by government fiscal policy.
To be blunt, involuntary unemployment exists because the federal budget deficit is too small.”
This cannot be correct though. As Keynes described in the General Theory it is actually a lack of private investment that causes unemployment:
“The outline of our theory can be expressed as follows. When employment increases, aggregate real income is increased. The psychology of the community is such that when aggregate real income is increased aggregate consumption is increased, but not by so much as income. Hence employers. would make a loss if the whole of the increased employment were to be devoted to satisfying the increased demand for immediate consumption. Thus, to justify any given amount of employment there must be an amount of current investment sufficient to absorb the excess of total output over what the community chooses to consume when employment is at the given level. For unless there is this amount of investment, the receipts of the entrepreneurs will be less than is required to induce them to offer the given amount of employment. It follows, therefore, that, given what we shall call the community’s propensity to consume, the equilibrium level of employment, . . . will depend on the amount of current investment. The amount of current investment will depend, in turn, on what we shall call the inducement to invest; and [this] will . . . depend on the relation between the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital and the complex of rates of interest.”
In essence, unemployment results from a lack of private investment and the refusal of capitalists to reduce wages to the extent that laborers will accept the wage rate. This makes sense given that capitalists are natural profit hoarders and risk managers. Capitalists will rarely spend enough into the economy to provide for full employment because the profit motive is too strong. One could actually argue that the idea of “full employment” is at odds with the natural profit seeking goal of capitalism.
But more importantly, this has nothing to do with the budget deficit. This is nothing more than an accounting error within MMT wherein they view private sector saving as (S-I) or saving net of investment. MMT has a long history of stating that private sector saving is equivalent to the size of the deficit (S-I) = (G-T). They say that the private sector cannot adequately save without government net financial assets. This completely contradicts the fact that investment adds to private sector saving and is the key driving component of private sector saving. In fact, as of 2012 the quantity of domestically held government bonds (NFA) was just 4.3% of private sector net worth. NFA is not just a small part of private sector net worth. It is practically insignificant relative to other components, yet somehow, in the MMT world this is portrayed as the key driving piece of the economy and unemployment.¹
To further prove that the deficit does not drive unemployment just imagine if we redistributed private sector savings across the economy. Is there any doubt that the wealthiest 400 Americans, with a net worth of $2.3T in 2014 could afford to employ the 9 million unemployed? The top 10% of earners in the USA earned over $1.1T last year. If the highest earning Americans simply chose to hire all of the unemployed there is no doubt that they could afford to do so in perpetuity given the proper level of redistribution. The most basic factual data proves that a key MMT concept is demonstrably false. Unemployment is not a function of small deficits as much as it’s a function of a lack of private sector investment and a problem of wealth distribution. But MMT goes out of its way to misconstrue both the accounting and the operational facts.
By defining “net saving” as (S-I) MMT confuses traditional economics which defines net saving as net disposable income less final consumption expenditure. When MMTers talk about “net financial assets” and “net saving” they are referring to financial savings net of domestic real investment by the private sector. It is not remotely close to representing household savings. By netting this huge quantity of private sector assets they are netting most of the cornerstone assets in our economy such as real estate, corporate stocks, corporate bonds, etc. When we think of “saving” in this sense we marginalize the two most important sources of private savings:
- Surplus from investment.
- Market value of existing assets.
The MMT view is a useful concept for understanding the importance of risk free assets and especially for discussing the value of government liabilities relative to the economy, but MMT has a tendency to take this conversation out of context and imply that the private sector is producing assets that are necessarily less safe or less important to the monetary system than government issued assets. For instance, MMTers sometimes say things like “the national debt is the equity that supports the entire global credit structure”. This is problematic for several reasons:
- Government debt is, within the scope of the “global financial system”, an asset and liability that nets to zero. They generally depict this relationship through a three sector model of the economy which depicts the government’s liabilities as the private sector’s assets. While this is true in the scope of the three sector model it is misleading in an aggregate sense. Government debt is not properly referred to as “equity” because government debt is an instrument that the aggregate private sector must finance and pay interest on. If government debt was the same as a bank deposit then you would be able to use it to buy goods and services, but clearly you cannot. Therefore, bonds have a lower level of moneyness than something like deposits do. Unless we start calling stocks and bonds and all other assets “money” then it’s incoherent to claim that government bonds are money.
- This idea implies that government debt is the backbone of the economy when this cannot be logically true. After all, government debt is financed by private sector income. Without a highly productive revenue generating private sector there is nothing special about the assets created by a government and it is literally impossible for these assets to remain valuable. But this again looks like a basic accounting error within MMT. Equity is the residual of assets and liabilities. We create equity when we produce real goods and services or increase the market value of our assets relative to their liabilities via productive output. It is completely illogical to argue that one can just “print” equity. This accounting error results in another internal accounting inconsistency in which reality does not match their theory.
- This is inconsistent with MMT’s view on endogenous money. MMT is generally very good in describing banking and they rightly note that banks do not “fund” their loan issuance with existing money. Instead, they create new money from thin air by expanding their balance sheet based on the capital they have. But this is also true of the government. The government expands its balance sheet endogenously because it is viewed as a creditworthy entity. And it is viewed as a creditworthy entity because it can tax a large viable private sector revenue stream. So MMT has this exactly backwards – a government obtains its financial strength by leveraging the capital of its private sector, not the other way around.
None of this means government debt and deficits aren’t important or that they can’t support the private sector economy. But understanding the context here and the relationship is of special import when understanding the economy. It would be more accurate to say that private sector net worth is the equity that supports the domestic economy and government debt can, at times, serve as a useful insurance instrument that supports that equity. But when we talk about “private sector saving” we should view the aggregate scope of assets instead of cherry picking the components that result in confusion and an unnecessarily government centric view of the world.
MMT Claim #3 : “taxes drive money”
Reality: Many things “drive money” and taxes are not likely an important one
MMT claims that the government creates demand for its currency by imposing a tax on its users. They claim that this drives the desire to obtain currency and that this currency is ultimately paid back to the government in bank reserves. In establishing this point MMT claims that the government spends first and imposes a tax that generates the demand for this currency.
The ability to tax or charge fees is not unique to a government, however. All banks charge a tax on their loans when they charge you an interest rate. This involuntary fee helps to create demand for bank money. Should we now argue that banks, as the primary issuers of money, create demand for money because they charge fees? Of course not. The reason there is demand for bank money is because there is desire to consume/invest in private output denominated in that currency. Most liabilities are issued with some form of involuntary obligation attached to them. The government is not unique in its ability to charge taxes/fees or impose obligations. We should not misconstrue this idea as being unique to government currency.
This is related to the MMT view that the government “spends first” and “taxes second”. They have even gone so far as to claim:
“it would be impossible to collect dollars from the private sector unless they had first been spent into existence by the public sector”
Of course, this point is demonstrably false. I can borrow from a bank and the government can collect taxes without ever having spent a dollar into existence. The government doesn’t need to spend a single dime in order for it to collect a tax on inside bank money.
Further, MMT misconstrues the role of Central Bank reserves in this idea. They argue that taxes are not actually paid in bank deposits, but are paid in Central Bank reserves because the Treasury settles tax payments in its account at the Federal Reserve. This point misconstrues the purpose of the Reserve system. The only reason the Reserve system exists is because of private bank inside money. So, if there were just one private bank in our financial system there would be no need for a Federal Reserve System. Hence, there would be no reserves. And the Treasury would settle its payments in bank inside money at this one bank. If reserves did not exist due to the large private network of private banks then the US Treasury would be exposed as a mere user and redistributor of inside money. In fact, the existence of the Fed does not change this fact since all government spending is merely a series of debits and credits that settle through the interbank system, but are ultimately initiated and finished in the private inside bank money system.
MMT would be better served by saying that users of a certain currency are confident using that currency because there is a government regulatory system that gives this currency credibility. An established court system and regulatory structure can give credibility to a currency by enforcing claims. But we should not be confused into thinking that this means the government “drives” demand for the currency. The credibility of a form of money is contingent on many things and a structured legal system is one element of this demand. But at its most basic level it should be obvious that the demand for any money is based on its credibility in purchasing output. So while a government regulatory system is certainly an important link in the demand for money it is not necessarily the “driver” of this demand.
In addition, there is an important element of stability in a centralized monetary system that many users do not appreciate. While fiat currencies can some times be ruined in real terms they are unusually stable in nominal terms. The ability to settle a monetary unit at par is uniquely conducive to a centralized monetary system because the government does not need to make a profit on its settlement process. The nominal stability of the currency and par settlement is an essential element to the currency’s adoption as this lack of volatility makes it predictable in every day use.
As a litmus test for the MMT idea we can simply ask ourselves if we would continue using the US payment system if there were no taxes? I suspect most people’s use of US dollars would not change much if there were no taxes to be paid. Instead, we use the US payment system primarily because it gives us access to a credible form of money that allows us to purchase the output denominated in that currency.
Standard MMT response to Claim #3: “Governments create involuntary demand for money by requiring that taxes be paid in a specific form of currency”.
CR response: The fact that the government charges an annual fee does not mean that this is why people use money. If this were true then the demand for money would not collapse during a hyperinflation. Again, we should get the order of procedures right here. Taxes are fees that are charged on our output. When output is high tax receipts are high. When output collapses tax receipts are low. But you cannot have tax receipts if there is no output. So sustainable and productive output MUST, by necessity, precede taxes. In this sense it is proper to say that productive output drives money. And if productive output collapses then there is no quantity of men with guns that can force people to pay taxes.
MMT is famous for saying that the government is only constrained in its spending by the amount of inflation that occurs. But inflation occurs when spending outstrips productive capacity. Since the primary source of productive capacity is private sector output MMT should always say that government spending is constrained by how much productive capacity it can move from the private sector to the public sector. In other words, the government cannot tax in excess of underlying productive capacity or they will create inflation with their excess spending. So the important point here is that a government is indeed constrained in its spending. It is constrained by the quantity and quality of its private sector’s productive output. And the quantity and quality of income that the private sector can create is the amount of income that constrains the government’s ability to spend.
MMT Claim #4: State money sits atop the hierarchy of money in the monetary system.
Reality: Most modern governments have outsourced money creation to the private banking system placing it in the dominant settlement and payment role.
In placing state money at the top of their hierarchy MMT boxes itself into the same corner that the rest of exogenous money theories do. This creates a state centric theory of money that is not all that different from the money multiplier theory. The difference being that MMT phrases things differently and applies an endogenous banking system into their model. Instead of saying that state money is “multiplied” (as money multiplier believers claim) MMT will say that it is “leveraged”. These are just word games that are utilized to make endogenous bank money appear compatible with the State Theory of Money.
The reality is that inside bank money dominates our financial system. The state has essentially outsourced money creation in our financial system to private banks. This means that outside money (state money) has been rendered secondary to inside money (bank issued money). Although the state could change this by nationalizing the banks it does not change the current reality of the financial system in which we reside.
Interestingly, the only reason this view is even viable within MMT is because we have private bank money in the first place. In the MMT world bank reserves are a government liability that payments are settled with which makes them the top of the hierarchy. But the only reason bank reserves even exist is because the Federal Reserve is a clearinghouse that supports private banks through the interbank system. In other words, the very existence of the Fed contradicts the MMT view. To prove this we can imagine a simple one bank system. In this system there would be no need for reserves and a Central Bank. All payments would clear through this one private bank and the US Treasury would be a user of the system just like all other users. Private bank deposits would obviously be the primary form of money and the government would be a mere redistributor of this bank money. MMT flat out contradicts this view and even goes so far as to create their own alternative reality wherein they consolidate the Fed into the Treasury in order to make their fantasy accounting world appear more accurate. They literally create a fictional world in order to make the flawed accounting look correct.
Standard MMT response to Claim #4: “Reserves might be a smaller quantity of the aggregate financial asset pool than deposits, but that does not mean they are less important”.
CR Response: The idea of a hierarchy is misleading precisely because it misleads one as to the actual importance of various financial assets. The monetary system relies on many healthy functioning pieces to work properly. I do not say that reserves are unimportant. I simply highlight the fact that they facilitate the transfer of payments. They are a secondary instrument of exchange in this sense since deposits naturally precede them. This is about understanding the monetary for what it is and not constructing some sort of government centric perspective whose end goal is policy ideas.
Further, if we wanted to highlight financial assets in terms of their importance it should be uncontroversial to note that equity is the cornerstone of any modern economy as it is the market value of our output. Without valuable output there is no need for a monetary system in the first place. MMTers will often imply that deficits add to equity as “net financial assets”, however, this is a misleading view since, if it were true, then governments could simply print equity at will and give their economies real value. While deficits can, at times, add to demand, we should not be fooled into thinking that deficits ALWAYS add to demand and equity. In fact, deficits can be quite damaging to equity at times as is evidenced in the case of any hyperinflation.
Final Critique: MMT is not Empirically Tested
My final and probably most important critique is that MMT is not an empirically tested theory. In fact, it is more a set of beliefs than a set of economic principles. This probably explains why its followers are so militant in their belief. They believe more than they can prove. We see this across several facets of MMT including:
- MMT cannot prove that “taxes drive money” and cannot even begin to show what level of taxation would drive demand for money. It is nothing more than a claim that they cannot test.
- MMT has no coherent theory of inflation. They claim that they will control inflation through changing of taxes combined with a Job Guarantee, but they cannot show what those levels would be or how they would actually implement such a policy in any coherent manner. Most worrisome is the fact that MMT appears to have no empirically coherent theory for containing high inflation. Despite repeatedly noting that inflation is the true constraint for a sovereign currency issuer they do not have an empirically tested theory for containing inflation. Instead, they claim that the Job Guarantee will anchor prices and claim that reducing deficits will sufficiently contain inflation. These positions are entirely theoretical and have only thin empirical evidence to support them.
- The Job Guarantee is a totally untested program in any developed country. MMT cannot show that the JG does what they claim. Instead, it is supported mainly by faith and untested claims.
There is legitimate reason to critique MMT based on its internal operational inconsistencies and the lack of empirical evidence supporting so many of their claims. I find MMT to be a useful theory, but one that we should approach with skepticism.
¹ – Terminology is a common problem across MMT and is the cause of much of the confusion that arises when discussing the theory. They use alternative definitions for many of their ideas including “net saving”, “money” and “full employment”. This terminology is often used in a vague sense that is inconsistent across parts of the theory.