Jay Kaeppel, the author of Seasonal Stock Market Trends has done some really excellent work on the various seasonal trends that we see in markets. These trends are often discussed in the equity markets, but are often more pronounced in the commodity markets where fundamentals are more likely to be impacted by weather and other macro trends. In his latest piece, Kaeppel discussed the seasonal trend in gold with a focus on May’s performance. If seasonal trends hold, May has history on its side:
“To wit, Fidelity Select Gold (FSAGX) has been up during the month of May in 16 of the past 21 years with an average monthly gain of +4.4%. Figure 3 displays the growth of $1,000 invested in FSAGX only during the month of May since 1989.”
Figure 3 – Growth of $1,000 invested in gold stocks (ticker FSAGX) only during May since 1989
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.