Here’s a brief rundown of some of the data we saw in the last 12 hours:
- US Flash PMI came in at 52, weaker than expected and down from 54.6 last month.
- German Flash PMI hit a six month low of 48.8.
- China PMI hit a two month low of 50.5, down from 51.6 last month.
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing came in at -6 vs expectations of a +3 reading.
- Redbook sales were up just 1.8%, down from 2% last week.
- New home sales came in at 417K, below estimates of 419K, but up from last month’s 411K.
So, not a great day for data. And yet the equity markets in Europe were up 1-3% and the S&P is up over 1%. No one I’ve talked to can make a whole lot of sense of this.
The big news in Europe overnight was that the ECB and Germany in particular might be easing on their austerity approach. The Euro tumbled in response and European equities soared despite very weak overall PMI data. So I think it’s the Abenomics effect. As the Japanese market rallies higher almost every single day on the back of the “whatever it takes” commitment by the BOJ/MOF, there appears to be a belief that the policy is already working and worth trying elsewhere. It might just be that simple – we’re seeing market participants all over the place capitulating to the power of governments.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.