Despite a positive headline figure the leading indicators in the ISM Manufacturing index continue to deteriorate (via Econoday);
“New orders are decelerating, and perhaps abruptly, while inventories climb and hiring slows. The ISM’s new orders index, in prior months having already showed signs of slowing, fell two full points to 51.1 to indicate only mild month-to-month growth. Inventories, which had already been going up, really spiked, up more than four points to 55.6. This will raise concern that a significant part of the inventory build is more and more unwanted. Employment, which had been very strong, fell nearly four points to 56.5.
Backlogs are another bad sign, falling five points and showing month-to-month contraction at 46.5. The headline composite of 54.4 is still solid but orders are now a central concern for the manufacturing outlook. This report may prove to be a negative for today’s stock market.”
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.