Just for fun – I took about 10 minutes to run through some figures on Apple and I simply can’t believe how low the estimates are for this quarter. My quick and dirty back of the napkin math comes to a $4.76 EPS estimate this quarter on revenues of $19.21B. Analysts expect $4.06 on revenues of $18.86B. The expectations for next quarter are outrageously low which means Apple could actually provide upside guidance. The estimate is currently at $5.04 in EPS and $22.22B in revenues. 17% sequential growth in revenues heading into the Holiday shopping season???? Are these people living under a rock?
Anyhow, I haven’t performed any fancy analysis or anything so take my horrible anlalysis here with a hefty grain of salt, however, I am willing to bet that my estimates are substantially closer to reality than the experts who are getting paid to do this full-time. For the life of me I cannot figure out how anyone claiming to be an analyst could come up with a $4 EPS estimate for this quarter or a $5 estimate for next quarter. The Q4 estimates are embarrassing in my opinion and provide investors with absolutely ZERO value.
PS – I have no position in Apple stock.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.