Jeff Saut is sounding more bullish than he has in a long time. The Raymond James Chief Investment Strategist now believes the April highs are the next likely destination for the S&P 500:
“Last week most of the major stock market averages I follow broke out of their May – September trading ranges to new recovery highs (small cap indices did not). Confirmatorily, said break-out occurred on a 90% Upside Day (September 20th). According to the invaluable Lowry’s service, “There have been three consecutive confirmed 90% Upside Days since the beginning of September. That’s the first time there have been more than two consecutive 90% Up Days since the March 2009 market bottom.” While I am not looking for a repeat of the 2009 stock market rally, the S&P 500’s (SPX/1148.67) April “highs” seem achievable. Meanwhile, the bears continue to growl, “Where’s the volume?” My reply to that question is that the whole 2009 rally came on declining volume, as did this year’s May mauling, begging the question – does volume really matter? I think it does; yet, I can make the argument that declining volume is actually bullish because it implies most participants just don’t believe the rally is for real. When volume finally arrives, it would suggest the naysayers have finally capitulated, and bought stocks, which I would interpret bearishly as in – who’s left to buy?!”
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.