The data trends say otherwise (via the SF Fed):
“With this sizeable output gap hanging over the economy, we expect both core and headline inflation to be restrained for some time. We project personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation to be around 1% in 2011 and 2012.”
“The September 21, 2010, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement noted: “Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability.” This was a stronger statement on the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate than had previously been made.
Relative to the preferred level of inflation among FOMC members, as reflected in their calculations from the June 2010 FOMC forecasts of the central tendency of the long-run level of inflation under appropriate monetary policy, core PCE inflation is running low. This low level of inflation, combined with the sluggish GDP forecast and large amount of slack in the economy, suggests that further disinflation is possible.
Japan’s experience beginning in the early 1990s underscores the risk of getting into a long period of sustained disinflation. Japan fell into deflation in the mid-1990s and has yet to recover.”
Source: SF Fed
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
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