The banker of all bankers says Greece won’t default. And this is a man worth listening given the fact that the bankers are the ones actually pulling the strings in Europe. In this world where everyone fears a Lehman 2.0 and banks get bailed out at every twist and turn Dimon makes a practical point regarding the fact that European leaders can’t afford to let Greece default. More importantly, the bankers can’t afford to let Greece default and they’ll do everything in their power to ensure that another baning crisis doesn’t result from the Euro crisis. In a recent interview with the Australian Dimon detailed his perspective:
“I think the Greek default is survivable, but it’s not a good thing for the global economy on top of all the things we are already worried about, and it will reverberate — it will have negative consequences.
“I don’t think they will default. I think the more likely outcome is that the European authorities and politicians will find a way to keep Greece from defaulting.
“It does reverberate because a lot of European banks own Greek debt and investors hold European bank debt. From all of the numbers I have seen, the European banks have enough capital to withstand it.
“I don’t think it’s going to freeze the capital markets of the world. We have had defaults around the world before — Russia, Argentina and Mexico — and they weren’t good events for global economies but they didn’t derail [the economy]”
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.