Morgan Stanley thinks we might be looking at a replay of the 1998 currency crisis when equity prices were pummeled over the course of several months as sovereign’s were in the spotlight:
“Looking to history for a guide. The best comparison for 2010 may be 1998 – not 2008, as some investors fear. Our European equity strategist Graham Secker has made this argument. Like today, in 1998 there were sovereign debt concerns and a financial crisis. This fostered a growth scare that contributed to 20% correction in the S&P 500 in three months, which then rebounded almost as quickly. Since the April peak this year, the trends looks quite similar. There is no guarantee that this will continue – for starters, it is difficult to know when the next secular headwind will blow because it is largely idiosyncratic political risk. But it reminds us that there will likely be a point of inflection when the market rallies 10% or more and it may already be here.”
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.