Good thoughts here from David Rosenberg on the price of real estate in the United States. Rosenberg points out that housing is still an excessively high percentage of household assets. If history is any guide it could mean there is at least another 10% downside in house:
“Chart 4 is the ratio of U.S. household real estate assets relative to the entire asset pie in the personal sector. At 26.7%, it is well below the bubble peak of 33.6%, but is still just back at the starting point of when the mania was just beginning (a decade ago). “
“While the latest ratio for Q4 is below the long-run norm it is still nowhere near the 24% bottoms we have seen in the past (to mean revert, you ultimately have to move through the mean). If we were to retest those lows, it would mean a further 10% correction in housing valuation. Not sure the bank stocks are braced for that possibility. With a 67% homeownership rate and a $500 billion to $1.0 trillion equity hole, we are well beyond the pale of normalcy.”
Source: Gluskin Sheff
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.