Pragmatic Capitalism

Capital for Living a More Practical Life

Interest Rates Will Rise Before the Fed Funds Rate Rises….

Good read here from Learnbonds on the likelihood of a substantial jump in interest rates well before the Fed raises rates. This is important for understanding investor psychology and how you have to approach the market like a chess player.  That is, you have to anticipate the many variables that go into cause and effect and then anticipate how the market might respond to various actions.  The more moves you can think ahead the better off you are.

“Stock prices tend to change in anticipation of what will happen, versus on what is happening.  Even though they change on current events, the most important question is:  “What does this mean about 3-6 months from now?”  Interest rates and fixed-income securities prices are similar in this respect.  Smart investors will not wait for QE to be lessened or end, the Fed’s balance sheet to begin shrinking, or the federal funds target rate to be raised.  They will anticipate these things.  You should anticipate these things too.”

Have a read here.

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