As expected, a huge up day finally came. I didn’t expect it to be one day after I called for it, but sometimes you get lucky. The S&P 500 closed up 6.35%, financials closed up 16%, oil closed down 3%, gold closed down 2% and treasuries finished nearly 2% lower. Unfortunately, we’ve seen this movie before. This rally had all the telltale signs of a bear market rally. Massive short covering, above average volume on a huge one day spike. Investors are trying to credit this one to Vikram Pandit’s memo at Citigroup, but Mr. Pandit was not specific how much Citi would write-down this quarter. Odds are that billion dollar write-downs are coming and Mr. Pandit is adjusting his outlook for it. Regardless, the market was massively oversold and a relief rally was due. I don’t think you can read too much into this. All of the underlying fundamental problems with this market are still existent. I pared my long side exposure after some outrageous moves today. I would expect this rally to have some follow-thru, but don’t fall in love with the upside. We are still in a long-term bear market until we see some major fundamental changes.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.