The latest from Oaktree’s Howard Marks is a must read. Unfortunately though, Marks is not particularly optimistic about the future. As the headline states, he’s more uncertain than he ever has been. That’s saying a lot for a guy who has masterfully navigated from pretty tough environments over a long and successful career managing money. Here are some highlights (or lowlights I guess).
On the general macro outlook:
“It’s my belief that we’re going to see relatively sluggish economic growth in the US for a prolonged period of time. My expectations for other developed nations, given their specific issues, are even less positive.”
On credit trends:
“Few debtors can tap the capitals markets to the same extend they could five or ten years ago.”
On confidence:
“Consumers were traumatized by the crisis of 2008….It could require significant healing before these influences abate.”
On potential bright spots:
“Potential economic pluses for exist, and they tend to be overlooked in downcast periods like today. These include the incipient housing recovery; the possibility of energy self-sufficiency;the fact that US manufacturing has slimmed down and our Chinese competitors have seen costs rise; and the fact that the US still leads in higher education, creativity and entrepreneurship.”
The whole letter is very good. Read it here.
![Cullen Roche](https://pragcap.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Headshot2022-1-144x144.png)
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
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