More excellent analysis from Mark Hanson. As you can see in the following analysis, housing is very seasonal and entering a VERY weak period. Look out below.
On a real basis (not-seasonally adjusted) national Pendings fell 7.4% m-o-m. The Northeast plunged 20.9%, Midwest 15.2% and South 5.6%. The West was up 7.9%, which was likely due to end of the $10k New Home tax credit I highlighted over the weekend. In addition, the West had been lagging other regions so part of the jump could be end of the season buyers just ‘going for it’. The drop in the Northeast was startling — perhaps this will result in fewer condo sales in the region in the next existing sales report — hehe.
Even with the West anomaly, Western Region pendings are no higher than last year’s peak. This entire report does not bode well for Aug Existing Home Sales to be released in a few weeks on an m-o-m basis.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.