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Hatzius: Explaining the Risk of Disorderly Unwind in the Bond Market

Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs explains why he doesn’t see a disorderly unwind in the US Treasury bond market. Here are some of the key points he mentions:

  • Goldman sees a 3% 10 year yield by 2015.  
  • The economy should continue to expand into 2014.
  • The fiscal drag from the government will soften in the coming quarters.
  • The Fed will taper beginning in December, 2013 with a possible announcement in September.
  • Inflation is likely to remain low.
  • The US could be running a primary surplus much sooner than most believe.
  • Bond vigilantes aren’t coming.

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