A recent article at MarketWatch by Mark Hulbert said Richard Russell was now bullish on the stock market despite just recently saying that the market was in a bear market rally. Hulbert wrote:
Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters, is one of the technical analysts who, in light of the joint new highs of both the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports, are now officially bullish on both the secondary and primary trends of the stock market.
So has Russell flip flopped in just a week? Not even remotely. Although Russell’s short-term indicators are bullish he is still skeptical of the market rally and maintains his position that the market is due for another vicious downturn. Just yesterday Russell wrote:
Russell on the stock market — My PTI is bullish, the Lowry’s statistics are bullish. The Industrials and the Transports corrected and then both Averages rose to new highs. The mechanical part of the situation has been satisfied by Dow Theory. But I’m still bothered by the fact that this “bull market” never started from an area where stocks were selling “below known values.” Every bear market I’ve ever seen has ended with stock selling “below known values.” We never saw anything like that at the October 2008 lows or at the March 2009 lows.
For this reason, I continue to think that maybe the final bear market bottom lies ahead. Suspicion, thy name is Russell. I think it’s OK to take a limited position in DIA (a proxy for the Dow). I don’t know whether such a position will turn out to be a long-term hold or whether it will turn out to be a trading position. And yes, I’m aware that my PTI looks like a head-and-shoulders pattern. But at the first sign of this advance actually breaking down, I’ll alert my subscribers to it.
So no, Mr. Hulbert, Richard Russell is not beating the same rah rah drum that the mainstream media bulls are. Not even close. But that doesn’t mean Russell isn’t bullish at all. In fact, he remains incredibly bullish about gold and given his uncanny accuracy it’s well worth listening to him:
Question — Russell, what have you personally done in your investing over the last many months?
Answer — I’ve stuck with gold, because I have such a firm conviction that gold is in a primary bull market. Of course, I’ve held this opinion for years, and for all those years I’ve begged my subscribers to buy and hold gold. Gold’s relative strength continues to be stronger than the Dow, but a position in DIA is now warranted.
So yes, Russell is bullish. He’s just not bullish about equities.
Source: Dow Theory Letters
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.