Is Greek default only a matter of time? According to the Council on Foreign Relations that’s the story the bond market is currently telling us. Despite unprecedented government intervention the bond market does not appear to believe the problem has actually been resolved in Greece:
“The difference between Greek and German government bond yields can be used to estimate the market’s view of the likelihood of a Greek default. The chart above shows these probabilities over different time frames on three different dates. On April 30th, no European plan was yet in place to address the ballooning Greek debt, and default was considered a real possibility in the short term. On May 11th, just after the European Stabilization Mechanism (ESM) was announced, markets sharply cut their view on the odds of default across all time horizons. However, the market’s analysis of the ESM has become much more nuanced since then. On September 1st, the market’s view of the probability of default within two years was lower than before the ESM was announced, but higher over longer time frames.
Greece will happily borrow from the ESM to avoid having to close its primary deficit (that is, excluding interest payments) too rapidly. Yet if Greece is successful in eliminating its primary deficit, its temptation to default will actually grow, as it can wipe out huge amounts of accumulated debt without any longer needing the financial markets to fund current expenditures. If faced with the choice between paying Greek debts and letting Greece default, its northern neighbors may, once their banks are on more solid footing, find it more attractive simply to let Greece default. This is the story line that the markets are now pricing into government bond spreads.”
This is not surprising. Bond investors are unlikely to sit by idly knowing that the structural problems in Greece have not been resolved. Recent economic data shows that austerity is not working. The problems in Europe are structural and due primarily to the currency system and lack of true unity in the region (see here). European CDS spreads are currently pricing in a 51% chance of default. The European Central Bank appears to have bought some time, however, if the bond market is any signal it’s likely that they’ve merely kicked the can down the road.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.