Nice breakdown here via Joe Weisenthal at Business Insider describing Jan Hatzius’ 2014 outlook:
“1. Will the economy accelerate to above-trend growth? Yes, because the private sector is picking up, and there’s going to be very little fiscal drag.
2. Will consumer spending improve? Yes, because real incomes will grow, and the savings rate has room to decline.
3. Will capital expenditures rebound? Yes, because nonresidential fixed investment will catch up to consumer demand.
4. Will housing continue to recover? Yes, the housing market is showing renewed momentum.
5. Will labor force participation rate stabilize? Yes, but at a lower level that previously assumed.
6. Will profit margins contract? No, there’s still plenty of slack in the labor market for this to be an issue.
7. Will core inflation stay below the 2% target? Yes.
8. Will QE3 end in 2014? Yes.
9. Will the market point to the first rate hike in 2016? Yes.
10. Will the secular stagnation theme gain more adherents? No. With the deleveraging cycle over, people will believe less in the idea that we’re permanently doomed.”
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.