Goldman Sachs recently released their outlook for the S&P 500 future fair value using a dividend discount model. Their base case estimates include a 6.7% EPS growth rate and a risk free rate of 4.5% – both of which I believe could be a bit generous as I believe profit margins are unlikely to surge back to their 2006 high and interest rates are likely to be much higher than an average of 4.5% over the coming 8 years. Nonetheless, Goldman is as optimistic as ever. They see the S&P 500 approaching 1860 by 2018.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.