Today’s big market rally is, at least in part, due to the very positive ZEW reading in Germany. The leading indicator posted a positive result for the first time since May 2012 and provided a glimmer of hope for the European economy (here’s more via ZEW):
“The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany has increased by 22.6 points in December 2012. It now stands at a level of 6.9 points. Thus, the indicator is now on positive territory for the first time since May 2012.
The indicator’s rise shows that the financial market experts expect the economic activity to stabilize until early summer 2013. Positive U.S. economic data may have contributed to this assessment. They may have spurred the hope that the global economy will gain momentum. Nevertheless, keeping in mind that the Indicator of Economic Sentiment currently hovers only marginally above the zero points-line, the German economy is rather likely to bottom out instead of already experiencing an upswing within the next six months.
“The financial market experts forecast the development of the economic activity in 2013 with pre-Christmas optimism. Although the cooling down of the economic activity will last until the beginning of 2013, Germany will not have to face a recession. However, this only applies if the crises in the eurozone do not deepen once again,” says ZEW President Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Wolfgang Franz.”
(Chart via Orcam Investment Research)
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.