Investment legend Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Company, believes the recent positive data in China is just a blip. He says China is still headed for a hard landing. His thesis is based on the idea that China’s stimulus resulted in massive excess demand and is now resulting in high inflation that can’t be contained via Chinese monetary policy.
Shilling accurately notes that their monetary policy includes “caveman tactics” (using reserve requirements) that will prove ineffective in combating inflation. Ultimately, this inflation is likely to be corrected by economic slowdown: