The Fed has downgraded their outlook for economic growth, but is seeing “tentative signs” or recovery. The economy is still susceptible to downside risks. They also said the unemployment rate is expected to peak at about 10% and that it could take 5 years before that rate declines to 5%. That is a very alarming expectation. Jobs will have to come back relatively quick if this economy is going to jump back the way equity investors are expecting. Regular readers know that I expect no such thing. Consumer driven deleveraging recessions just don’t end as quickly as normal business led recessions (the type the world has been spoiled with for 50 years). Trust me, I hate this recession as much as anyone, but it’s important to try to be rational about this. Common sense and the history of consumer led deleveraging recessions are simply not on the side of the green shoot theorists….
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.