The Flash PMI’s from HSBC are dampening the global recovery story. After several months of better than expected data the Chinese and European PMI’s are pointing to weaker economic growth ahead. China’s Flash PMI came in at 48.1 – a 4 month low. Eurozone PMI hit 48.7 a new 3 month low and a reversal from last month’s reading of 49.3.
HSBC offered some details on the report:
Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said:
“The Eurozone economy contracted at a faster rate in March, suggesting that the region has fallen back into recession, with output now having fallen in both the final quarter of last year and the first quarter of 2012. The downturn is only very mild at the moment, with the PMI signalling a drop in GDP of approximately 0.1-0.2%, and an upturn in business confidence in the service sector provides hope that conditions may improve again later in the year. However, firms are clearly focusing on cost reduction, with employment falling at the fastest rate for two years as inflows of new business continued to deteriorate, reflecting weak demand across the region.
And on China:
Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & CoHead of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:
“Weakening domestic demand continued to weigh on growth, as indicated by a slowdown in new orders which came in at a four-month low. External demand remained in contraction territory, but the decline was at a slower pace, implying that there are no improvements in the demand outlook. More worryingly, employment recorded a new low since March 2009, suggesting slowing manufacturing production was hindering enterprises’ hiring desire. The soft-patch in manufacturing was in line with the recent downside surprise in industrial production growth. Growth momentum could slow down further amid a combination of sluggish export new orders and softening domestic demand. This calls for further easing steps from the Beijing authority.”
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
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