The ECRI hasn’t changed their tune despite a minor dip in their leading indicators. They still believe a strong recovery is on tap for 2010:
(Reuters) – A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a nine-week low along with its yearly growth rate, but the dip in the index that recently reached a record high does not signal a rocky recovery, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 127.4 in the week to Nov. 13, from an upwardly revised 127.8 the prior week, which was originally reported as 127.3.
The index’s yearly growth rate also hit a nine-week low of 25.0 percent from 26.1 percent last week, which the group revised higher from 25.3 percent.
Though the index’s gauge of annualized growth has fallen off record highs reached in early October, ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan said the group maintains its forecast that the economy is still on the mend.
The index “is still pointing unambiguously to a continued economic recovery,” said Achuthan.
The weekly index fell because of slower housing activity, Achuthan said. The growth rate is derived from a four-week moving average, and occasionally moves inversely to the weekly index level.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.