The ECRI’s leading indicator is undeterred despite the recent market swoon. Their weekly leading indicator continues to point to recovery. The ECRI said its leading index rose to 131.4 versus last week’s reading of 132.2. The annualized growth rate declined for a seventh straight week to 22.7, but remains robust.
ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan says the recovery is still on track:
“With the WLI staying near the previous week’s 83-week high, the U.S. business cycle recovery is set to keep going in the months ahead.”
Contrary to David Rosenberg, Lakshman Achuthan is also encouraged by this morning’s GDP report:
“With GDP growth rebounding 12 percentage points in just three quarters, the V-shaped recovery foreseen last summer by the WLI is coming into focus.”
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.