The latest from the ECRI is still calling for a strong recovery:
A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, and while its yearly growth rate continued to fall from October’s record highs to a 10-week low, a smooth recovery is still expected, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 128.8 in the week ended Nov. 20 from 127.2 the previous week, which was downwardly revised from the originally reported 127.4.
The index’s yearly growth rate fell to a 10-week low of 24.1 percent from 25.0 percent, which was revised higher from an original 24.9 percent.
ECRI’s gauge of annualized growth has fallen off record highs reached in early October, but the numbers are still “strong and consistent with a steady economic recovery,” said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.
The weekly index rose due to increases among all of its components, Achuthan said.
The growth rate is derived from a four-week moving average, and occasionally moves inversely to the weekly index level.