The ECRI has released their latest reading on their weekly leading indicator and the news is becoming a bit more mixed. The leading index fell to 130.9 from last week’s reading of 131.4. Of concern is the slowing annualized growth rate. The annualized growth rate dipped to 21.5% from 22.7% last week.
In the video attached, Lakshman Achuthan describes the potential negative impacts of this. While the slow-down in growth is alarming it does not point to signs of a double dip. Achuthan says:
“The continued easing in WLI growth indicates that U.S. economic growth will start decelerating in the coming months.”
Achuthan says the chances of a double dip are “nowhere in sight”. However, he says stock prices are unlikely to perform anywhere near how they performed last year.
Source: ECRI
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.