The ECRI’s growth gauge rebounded a bit this week, but may already be forecasting much tougher times ahead. The ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index rose to its highest level in 6 weeks at 122.4 and the widely followed annual growth gauge improved to -9.8% from -10.3%. Lakshman Achuthan says we need to worry about recession if the indicator turns down once again (despite having always forecasted a recession once breaching the -10% threshold):
“The WLI plummeted for two months through late June before flattening out and then rising to a nine-week high. But if it turns down once again, that would signal heightened recession danger.”
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.