The ECRI’s growth rate contracted at -9.8% this week – just 0.2% from a level that has always preceded recession (via Reuters).
“A measure of future U.S. economic growth was unchanged in the latest week, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index stood at 120.6 for the week ended July 9, unchanged from the previous week, which was originally reported as 121.5. The index was last below 120.6 in the week of July 24, 2009, when it measured 120.3, according to ECRI. The index’s annualized growth rate fell to minus 9.8 percent from minus 9.1 percent the previous week, originally reported as minus 8.3 percent.”