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EARNINGS UPDATE

Earnings have been better than expected across the board, but are still down enormously from last year.  Including the skewed financial earnings the S&P 500 EPS is down about 10% year to date.  Ex-financials EPS is down 23%.  Funny how you don’t see those “ex-financials” comparisons on CNBC when they skew the numbers in a positive way.  S&P 500 net income is set to come in 25% lower than last year.   The 2009 average analyst estimate is the same as it was last week at $60.   I still think this is far too high. My estimate is still calling for roughly $50.

My proprietary expectation ratio is improved substantially this week.  This is an excellent long-term sign.   The financials have severely skewed the data to the upside which is why I am getting such a large uptick in the ER data so it will be interesting to see how these numbers change as we get into Q2 and Q3.   This is a great barometer of analyst expectations and is a clear sign that the estimates are coming much more in-line with actual results.

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