Sometimes the simplest rules are the best rules. One rule that long time market observers follow is in defining a bull and bear market – any market that trades above its 200 day moving average is in a bull market while any market below the 200 day moving average is in a bear market. Well, Dr Copper – the metal with a PhD in Economics due to its ability to predict future economic strength – has officially entered bear market territory. Of course, we haven’t seen the “death cross”, (which has proven VERY prescient in China’s recent market action) which is a much more reliable long-term trend change, but this is the first time we’ve seen copper price dip below the 200 day moving average since the 2008 just before the market crashed. Investors would be wise to take note.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.