The Bloomberg Chart of the Day is showing the clear correlation between jobless claims and the end of recessions.
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But don’t make the classic economist mistake of not being able to connect the dots between the economy and the market. The end of the recession does not necessarily mark the bottom in the market. As Japan experienced time and time again (and as we experienced in 2002) the market can drift lower even as the economy actually improves. Are we seeing a repeat of the 2002 recession when investors were drawn back into stocks in 2001 only to get clobbered over the summer of 2002?