Have the last of the permabears started to change their tune? I think it’s a stretch to say that Mr. Rosenberg is turning bullish, but his note this morning contained some unusually constructive comments. Specifically, Mr. Rosenberg expects an upside surprise in tomorrow’s ISM report:
“The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey was another strong U.S. regional survey, adding to the list of manufacturing polls that have been better than expected. General business activity jumped to 16.2 from 2.6, the best reading in seven months. Similar to many of the other regional surveys, the components mirrored the strong headline with production up strongly. The labour subcomponents were solid as well, with the average employee workweek rising to 6.2, reversing four months of declines and the number of employees rose to 5.8, much better than the -4.1 reading in October and the highest level since May. Overall, we continue to expect an upside surprise to the ISM index due out tomorrow, which is expected to come in at 56.5 in November.”
Source: Gluskin Sheff
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.