Credit Suisse recently told investors to buy the dips as the market approaches 1200 and their outlook is proving prescient thus far. CS is maintaining their macro outlook of a strong H1 and weak H2 (in-line with my own views). They maintain that the market should remain in a bull phase thru the next 2 quarters. Nonetheless, they do warn that the market appears stretched in the near-term as the rally extends itself:
“Some of our tactical indicators suggest that market looks a bit stretched very near-term but overall they are still consistent with equities heading higher on a 1-6 month view:
market looks a bit overbought when we look at the % of stocks trading above their 10-week MA.
Nonetheless, they think equities are likely to quickly rebound from any downside as sentiment remains very depressed and the economy remains poised to surprise to the upside. Other primary reasons to remain bullish include corporate balance sheet strength, job growth and a soft landing in China. They target S&P 1,220, but say 1,250 is a possibility. They are currently forecasting 3.7% GDP in the US.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.