Despite a record breaking run Credit Suisse is sticking to their guns on higher equity prices. They are now calling for a year end target of 1470 on the S&P 500 and offer 9 reasons to stay bullish:
“(1) Bond yields could rise further… this might help equities
(2) The macro environment is supportive:
-Economic momentum indicators suggests global and US growth is still well above consensus
-The breadth of the US recovery is now impressive: investment; housing; employment; the
process of consumer deleveraging in the US is quite advanced; inventories are low and bank
loan growth has returned
-China easing: half of GDP is coming from emerging markets
-Europe: muddling along but mutualisation is advancing
(3) The dovishnessof central banks and the synchronised QE as the end game
(4) Rising global excess liquidity is consistent with c10% re-rating
(6) Valuations relative to bonds are still attractive
(7) Equities remain the hedge if , as we expect, long term inflation expectations continue to rise.
(8) Positioning still cautious relative to optimistic sentiment
(9) Earnings: upgrades continue, global revisions just turned positive”
Source: Credit Suisse
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
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