Good piece here from Friday at Reuters on the profit picture. This is a big concern heading into the current earnings season. As the global economy slows companies are really setting expectations lower. Via Reuters:
Third-quarter U.S. earnings have just begun, but already U.S. companies are sounding alarm bells about the fourth quarter.
Outlooks for the fourth quarter – just two weeks old – are so far decidedly more negative than positive. Thomson Reuters data shows 11 negative outlooks so far from Standard & Poor’s 500 companies and no positive outlooks.
Third-quarter guidance, meanwhile, at the comparable period showed 6 negative outlooks and no positive.
However, U.S. companies so far are having a tougher time beating analyst expectations in the third quarter, with 59 percent of companies exceeding forecasts, below the 62 percent long-term average, based on Thomson Reuters data. And year-over-year growth is expected to be negative for the first time in three years.
Revenue trends have also been weak: Just 50 percent of companies that have reported have beaten estimates on revenue, compared with the 62 percent average, he said.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.