More from the “muddle through” file. CoreLogic, one of the leading real-time data analytics firms tracking US house prices, says the housing market could remain “flat through 2013”:
“CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), a leading provider of information, analytics and business services, today released its October Home Price Index (HPI®) which shows that home prices in the U.S. decreased 1.3 percent on a month over-month basis, the third consecutive monthly decline.According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales, also declined by 3.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in October 2011 compared to October 2010. This follows a decline of 3.8 percent in September 2011 compared to September 2010. Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 0.5 percent in October 2011 compared to October 2010 and by 2.1* percent in September 2011 compared to September 2010. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.
“Home prices continue to decline in response to the weak demand for housing. While many housing statistics
are basically moving sideways, prices continue to correct for a supply and demand imbalance. Looking forward, our forecasts indicate flat growth through 2013,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.”
As I’ve noted on several occasions, housing is a key component in the balance sheet recession theory. If house prices remain flat in the coming years it’s highly unlikely to be accompanied by above average economic growth. All in all, I think this outlook is in-line with my general macro perspective.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.