If the Chicago area is any sign of economic activity and impacts from the government shutdown then it looks like things are actually picking up momentum. The Chicago PMI recorded its highest month over month reading in 30 years at 65.9. That’s a 2.5 year high in the index. New orders jumped to a 15 month high and production is also at a 2.5 year high. Even employment is up to 57.7 from 53.7 last month. There’s not much to dislike in this report.
The broader picture isn’t quite as rosy for the month of the October. While Chicago is booming, many other regions took a step backwards this month. Dallas, Philly and New York all went backwards on the month. Overall, the real-time regional PMI is down to 19.1 from 21.4 in the previous month. That’s still consistent with growth, but it’s nothing to write home about.
Chart via Orcam Research:
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.