Investors displaying “a bout of impatience” for a worldwide economic recovery may soon find relief, according to Tim Bond, head of global asset allocation at Barclays Capital.
“The hard evidence of recovery that the markets seem to require will be available in August and September,” Bond wrote in a June 26 report. His estimate is based on data for business cycles since World War II.
The CHART OF THE DAY tracks the performance of the industrial-metals component of the Standard & Poor’s/Goldman Sachs Commodity Index and U.S. raw-steel production, as Bond did in the report. The metals gauge, consisting of aluminum, copper, lead, nickel and zinc, climbed 36 percent for the year through last week. Steel output rose 42 percent during the period.
Bond made the comparison to illustrate that industrial activity is rebounding along with commodities.
“The trend in demand is upwards, so the trend in industrial commodity prices should be similarly higher,” he wrote. “Prices have not run markedly far ahead of economic developments.”
Industrial production and corporate profits are likely to accelerate in the next few months as the global economy emerges from recession, according to Bond. This would bolster shares of raw-material producers and other companies most closely linked to fluctuations in industrial output, in his view.