Few things have been more confounding over the course of the 60% rally than the lack of insider conviction with regards to purchasing their own stocks. The latest data on insider selling and buying continues to show alarmingly low levels of buying accompanied by very high levels of selling. As we continue to see the very weak rebound in revenues and non-existent hiring it has become more and more clear why insiders lack conviction in their own shares – after all, without a rebound in hiring and organic revenue growth a sustainable economic recovery remains highly unlikely.
Yesterday’s Business Roundtable Survey confirmed much of this. Despite increased confidence over Q3 we continue to see very low confidence in future hiring and spending. Hence, the likelihood of a long and slow recovery remains very high:
“The economy is in the throes of a long transition back to health; recovery will be long, extending beyond 2010,” said Ivan G. Seidenberg, Chairman of Business Roundtable and Chairman and CEO of Verizon Communications. “The outlook of our CEOs reflects that reality: we see noticeable gains in sales and capital spending, but employment growth continues to lag.”
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.