Good commentary here via Michael Santoli (Barrons):
“Q:Can we expect the typical year-end rally?
A: Maybe. One of the worst bets a trader could make over the past many decades was to short the stock market in the final months of a pre-presidential-election year. This, along with the fact that investor sentiment got profoundly sour a couple of weeks ago and the market has refused some rather obvious excuses to pull back, has some tactical traders getting aggressive on the long side, believing the lows for the year to be in place. The action has been encouraging, but falls just short of an “all clear” signal.
This market has withstood a bombardment of bad news to stay about flat this year. But now, at the top of the index’s recent range, it will require genuine good economic news and fresh capital, rather than the mere absence of calamity and a dearth of sellers, to propel things upward for a textbook year-end rally.”
What are your thoughts? Is this move sustainable? Or has it already exhausted itself?
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.