Byron Wien’s outlook and predictions are always interesting, but I found this interview to be particularly enlightening. Not because Wien prognosticates about the markets, but talks about where he has been right AND where he has been wrong. Wien admits that the economy has been much weaker than he suspected and that the sustainability of corporate earnings is highly suspect. He eats a bit of crow and discusses where his outlook has disappointed. It’s a nice change of pace for Wall Street analysts – too many of whom make broadly incorrect predictions and are never held to task. Luckily for Wien, his prediction of a flat stock market in 2010 is looking pretty good so even while he admits to missing some of the macro factors he’s also gotten many things correct. It would be nice to see more of this rational thinking and accountability on Wall Street:
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.